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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.