Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
